The main objective of CCRIF’s country risk profiles is to provide a clear picture of the key risks that the country faces in order to guide national catastrophe risk management and inform decision making for both risk reduction and risk transfer (via CCRIF coverage and other mechanisms that may be available). They provide the basis for CCRIF to discuss coverage options with each country individually and to underwrite country policies once coverage levels have been agreed. As such, these profiles present losses for the country at different probabilities of occurrence (more precisely referred to as probabilities of exceedance). The exceedance probabilities act as the basis for pricing of the risk transfer product (i.e. CCRIF’s insurance policy) and represents the established way of quantifying risk.
The SPHERA model for TC and EQ replaces the MPRES model, which was used from 2011 to 2018. The SPHERA model incorporates new information and data; it includes the most recent hazard events and employs the most up-to-date scientific findings and methodologies in hazard modelling and therefore is able to generate a higher precision in the evaluation of losses due to earthquake and tropical cyclone hazards.
With respect to the excess rainfall model, the previous XSR 2.1 model was upgraded to XSR 2.5. Improvements and new features in the XSR 2.5 model include the consideration of soil saturation in addition to the pure rainfall in the loss calculation, as well as a multi-trigger CARE (covered area rainfall event) based on additional WRF 3 configurations. These changes were made to better represent smaller and/or localized severe rainfall events in the model.
The development of the CCRIF catastrophe risk profiles is an important contribution to national and regional risk management institutions through the collection of a significant set of detailed databases on national catastrophe risk exposures in member states. These risk profiles facilitate increased knowledge of the extent of catastrophe risk facing CCRIF member countries and can help governments better adapt to known threats and mitigate against future threats. The data contained in these profiles can also be used by countries in their development planning frameworks and in the preparation of national disaster management plans for example.